College Football Based off the EFL Model Explanation

Michael McKernan
Aug 8, 2023
19 min read

Updated: Apr 21, 2024

What League 1 (the Top League) Would Look Like:

South - East	Midwest - West
Alabama Crimson Tide	Ohio State Buckeyes
Clemson Tigers	Michigan Wolverines
Georgia Bulldogs	Notre Dame Fighting Irish
LSU Tigers	Penn State Nittany Lions
Florida Gators	Wisconsin Badgers
Texas Longhorns	Iowa Hawkeyes
Texas A&M Aggies	Washington Huskies
Tennessee Volunteers	USC Trojans
Auburn Tigers	Oregon Ducks
Oklahoma State Cowboys	Utah Utes
Oklahoma Sooners	Michigan State Spartans

Each team would play members of their division once. Top 3 in each division plus two wild cards advance to playoffs. Based off of the Final College Football Rankings of 2022/Best Record, this would be the playoff, bowl games and Relegation Matchups:

Playoffs:

Georgia (#1 SE) vs. USC (WC #2) Michigan (#1 MW) vs. Clemson (WC #1)

Winners Championship Winners

Ohio State (#2 MW) vs. Tennessee (#3 SE) Alabama (#2 SE) vs. Utah (#3 MW)

Bowl Games:

Penn State vs. LSU

Washington vs. Texas

Oregon vs. Oklahoma State

Notre Dame vs. Florida

Iowa vs. Oklahoma

Relegation Games (Loser of the Game is Demoted to League 2):

Midwest/West: Wisconsin vs. Michigan State

South/East: Auburn vs. Texas A&M

College Football Based off of the EFL Model

The preview above shows what "League 1" would look like. These buttons (also at the bottom of the screen) detail how the leagues would function and what the leagues would look like if they were done for the 2023-2024 Season with sample schedules and sample playoff/relegation matchups based on 2022 performances. Below is the explanation of the process and why it makes sense to adopt something of this degree and why fans, players, and schools should root for this option.

How Each Individual League Would Function

How Leagues Would Look if Done for 23-24 Season

The Problem: Due to money, TV contracts, exposure, exclusive rights deals, NIL, etc. the big schools are unhappy and want to figure out ways to get more money. Conference realignment is happening more and more and we are moving toward super conferences which will shut-out the smaller schools from having a shot at the big prize (CFP through rankings and finances as the gap between the lower and upper will only increase exponentially from here on out with super conferences). TV Contracts and funding is becoming more and more competitive and we are seeing the potential (or imminent) loss of a conference that has been around for over a century the Bill Walton proclaimed “Conference of Champions”: The Pac-8 (Pac-10, Pac-12). We are also seeing conferences that span the entire country all for money . Rutgers, NJ and USC, California are now in the same football conference. If you drove from one campus to the other it would take you 40 hours across 2,804 miles soon to be Big 10 member University of Washington is a brief 41 hours across 2,853 miles. In the Big 12, we have West Virginia University and the University of Arizona separated by 2,070 miles. In the SEC, we have the University of South Carolina and the University of Texas separated by 1,143 miles. In the ACC, we have Boston College University and the University of Miami separated by 1,495 miles.

The Solution: Based off of European soccer (EPL, La Liga, Bundesliga, Serie A, Ligue 1, etc.), The Promotion/Relegation Model, which I will call the EFL Model (English Football League), allows for all of the top teams to compete (and share the biggest TV deals financially) while allowing for smaller programs the chance to rise up. The simulation of the Model outlined below takes in a number of factors including 8 year performance, game attendance, and football team value.

I am calling it the EFL Model because in English Football there are 11 "recognized" leagues. The Premiere League with Manchester City, Liverpool, Chelsea, Arsenal, Manchester United, Tottenham, etc. is the top league (20 teams). The bottom 3 teams every year are demoted to the Championship (24 teams) with the top 3 from the championship being promoted to the Premiere League. Then there's EFL League 1 (24 teams), EFL League 2 (24 teams), National League (24 teams), and then in tier 6 is National League North and National League South (each with 24 teams - so 48 in total). Tier 7 has 88 teams, Tier 8 has 160 teams, Tier 9 has 319 teams. Each League works on a relegation/promotion format that can allow a team from Tier 9 to rise all the way up to the Premiere League. This Model takes these same principles but adjusts the team quantities so as to allow teams to rise quicker with a good program and not fall as quickly with a downturn allowing for the top teams to recover quicker while also allowing smaller teams the chance to rise quicker as well.

How It Works: Teams are placed in Leagues. There will be as many leagues as necessary to include all teams from FBS to Division III. Outlined below are the top 4 Leagues (this includes all of FBS and some of FCS). League 5 would have FCS and D2 (if necessary) and so on. · League 1 will have 22 teams separated into 2 divisions (South-East and Midwest-West). · League 2 will have 44 teams separated into 4 divisions (South, East, Midwest, and West). · League 3 will have 44 teams separated into 4 divisions (South, East, Midwest, and West). · League 4 will have 88 teams separated into 8 divisions (East 1, East 2, South 1, South 2, Midwest 1, Midwest 2, West 1, and West 2).

. All other leagues will follow League 4 with 88 teams in 8 divisions. No matter the league, there will be 11 teams in each division. Teams will play 10 division games (playing everyone in their division once). Teams will then be allowed 2 non-division games. These games can be played to preserve rivalries or as tune-ups. The results of these games won’t affect their division standings. This is a way to preserve some of the best rivalries in college football within the existence of promotion/relegation. Examples: Georgia may choose to preserve their rivalry game with Georgia Tech and play Mercer. Clemson may choose to preserve their rivalry game with South Carolina and either Florida State or Georgia Tech. Oregon may choose to preserve their rivalry game with Oregon State and play against a team like Purdue. And so on. Each league has a set playoff (with promotion available for everyone outside of League 1) and relegation schedule based on their performance.

One Rule when Scheduling: When scheduling, teams are not allowed to play a team from the same league in a different division (with the only exception being a preserved rivalry game – each team is allowed to claim up to 3 rivalry games – if all 3 are outside of their division they must choose 2 to play in a given year). Specifically in League 1 ONLY: Teams must play a team from a lower league with their two non-division games. This is a way to encourage the sharing of wealth with a team from a lower division. The only other exception to this rule is an already scheduled game with a newly promoted/relegated team.

Positives of this Model:

Bowl Games: In the current system there are 41 bowl games (slots for 82 teams) but by building the playoff even the ordinarily big bowl games: Liberty Bowl, Holiday Bowl, Alamo Bowl, BCS Bowls (in non-playoff years) lose their shine. Many student-athletes are opting to skip bowls outside of the playoff all together (because even they see it as meaningless). With this system all of the end of the year “Bowl Games” would mean something. Teams would be looking to be promoted, avoid relegation, or play for a future #1 seed for their division (in League 1). For non-seniors, the bowls are especially important as it will determine their fate for next year (can they make it to a higher league, can they avoid going down to a lower league). This system also allows for teams not named Alabama, Ohio State, Georgia, Clemson, etc. to compete for a league championship or division crown – a banner that can be hung with pride along with a sizable pay bump when they reach the next division up.

Allowance for Small Programs:

This model allows up-and-coming programs to advance as high as their talent will let them with no red tape. For example, UCF was not selected to the College Football Playoff two years in a row after finishing the regular season undefeated. In 2018 they beat #7 Auburn in the Peach Bowl and finished #6 with 4 first place votes in the AP Poll. With this model, UCF would have (theoretically) won promotion after that great 2018 season and advanced to League 1 the following year where they would have had a schedule of: #1 Alabama, #2 Georgia, #3 Oklahoma, #4 Clemson, #10 Auburn, #14 Oklahoma State, #18 LSU, Florida, Texas, Texas A&M, and Tennessee. In 2019, they would have their chance to assert themselves as one of the best teams in the country and win the League 1 National Championship. Even if UCF (due to the brutal schedule) only last one year in League 1, the boost they would receive financially would allow them to build their program to new heights with the possibility of being back again after 1 year by winning the League 2 South-East Title again. The same could be said about Boise State before them. This would allow those teams the chance to rise up and play in the best of the best league. UCF is never going to get an invitation to the SEC, Boise State will never get an invitation to the Big 10 (unless things really change). But this model allows them the chance to play in the “SEC” or “Big 10” for one year or more if they do well. This model prevents the debates (such as UCF in 2018). Theoretically a team in League 2 could have an amazing season and people could say that would have won League 1, but they would have an opportunity the following year to prove themselves (and they would still have a League 2 Championship).

This model removes the debates surrounding multiple bid conferences, Pac-12 winner vs. Big 10 runner-up (much of which albeit will go away with the incoming 12 team playoff). The argument against the 12 team playoff is making the regular season mean less. A team can have 3 losses and still make the playoff in the right conference (read: SEC, Big 10) when a quarter of their opponents were Vanderbilt, Missouri, Rutgers, Indiana, and Northwestern.

Accountability and No More "Cupcakes":

This model also holds the top teams accountable. After Nick Saban retires (or dies whichever happens first), Alabama will have to continue to have good seasons in order to keep their spot in the top league. If they falter, they can drop to the next lower league. This model does not give special treatment to the top teams by keeping them in a league they don’t deserve to play in no matter how they perform. In this model there are no “cupcakes” in League 1. Vanderbilt went 26 conference games without a win in the SEC (before beating Kentucky in November 2022). Rutgers had 21 straight conference losses in the Big 10 (before beating Michigan State in Oct 2020). With bottom teams dropping to a lower league and the teams replacing them being newly crowned champions these “bye week” conference games will not exist year after year for teams.

Geographical Allowances in Model:

This model keeps (the best it can) teams from traveling long distances by keeping teams within a certain region via their division. Each league is broken up into East, South, West and Midwest. A lot of times teams are grouped with teams they currently share a conference with, previously shared a conference with before realignment, or a close neighbor that could develop into a rivalry (Miami FL and UCF for instance or Houston and UTSA).

The Model can never be perfect. As an example: Indiana is placed in the East (due to the teams in League 2). Indiana would therefore be stuck in the East or South with promotion/relegation while most of their current Big 10 counterparts would be in the Midwest. Some divisions may be tougher than others, but it is all done in a way to preserve geographical travel (and rivalries). With how promotions and relegations will work teams will be replaced within the same region so a team like Stanford will never be in a division with teams all from the East Coast.

Scheduling:

For scheduling purposes this model allows teams to schedule two years in advance with the only exception being relegated/promoted teams. Teams play every team in their division home/away every two years. For example if Notre Dame plays at Ohio State in Year 1, Notre Dame will host Ohio State in Year 2 and continue to alternate as long as both remain in the same division.

With this model, the best teams from each division will always play. Currently, a scenario exists where an undefeated Oregon and undefeated USC wouldn't meet until the conference championship game even though they share a conference. Same can be said for undefeated Georgia and undefeated Alabama or undefeated Ohio State and undefeated Wisconsin. With everyone playing everyone in the division and a playoff of the 8 best teams from those two divisions occurring after, it allows for the best games to be played.

Also for scheduling purposes, the first three weeks of the schedule and last three weeks of the schedule will be flexed for each team. In those five weeks they will play their main rival, their two non-division games, and have at least one of their two bye weeks (if not both). When a team is replaced, the new team replaces the old team’s schedule. For an example, I will showcase two teams and their 2 year schedules I picked Michigan State and TCU (Michigan State had the worst record of anyone in the Midwest/West Division League 1 and TCU had the best record of anyone in the Midwest or West Division League 2 (they would theoretically be the promoted/demoted teams of that region):

2025 Michigan State Schedule		2026 TCU Schedule
Non-Division: Indiana		Non-Division: Texas
Non-Division: Western Michigan		Michigan
@ Utah		Utah
---		---
Oregon		@ Oregon
Penn State		@ Penn State
@ Notre Dame		Notre Dame
Ohio State		@ Ohio State
@ Washington		Washington
Wisconsin		@ Wisconsin
@ Michigan		Iowa
USC		@ USC
---		---
@ Iowa		Non-Division: @ SMU

2025 TCU Schedule		2026 Michigan State Schedule
Non-Division: SMU		Non-Division: @ Indiana
Non-Division: @ Texas		Non-Division: Rutgers
@ Northwestern		@ Baylor
Minnesota		@ Minnesota
@ Kansas State		Kansas State
---		---
@ Iowa State		Iowa State
Texas Tech		@ Texas Tech
@ Missouri		Missouri
Nebraska		@ Nebraska
Arkansas		@ Arkansas
@ Colorado		Colorado
---		---
Baylor		Illinois*

In this scenario where Michigan State is demoted and TCU is promoted at the conclusion of the 2025 season, TCU would play Michigan State’s 2026 schedule and Michigan State would play TCU’s 2026 schedule (shown above).

The non-division opponents would remain the same for Michigan State and TCU (utilizing the newly promoted provision for their matchup against Texas. In 2027 TCU would play Baylor for their non-division game to preserve the rivalry along with SMU. Michigan State would play Michigan and Indiana for their rivalries. If those teams were to rejoin a division with one of their rivals in it, the two teams can work together to find a matchup of teams willing to re-schedule them or play one less game. This would be a relatively rare occurrence.

*On the 2026 TCU Schedule Northwestern (who in the simulation had the worst record of anyone in the Midwest Division League 2) would be relegated and replaced by Illinois who had the best record in the Midwest Division League 3.

For a team that remains in the same division at minimum 10 of their 12 games would remain the same with only the newly promoted team and newly relegated team changing.

Because each team plays 5 home and 5 away in league and alternates each year, teams will not play on the road/at home against the same opponent two years in a row.

Negatives and Retorts:

College football purest will balk at the end of conferences as they know it.

But, most of them are already balking at developments of West Virginia in the Big 12, Texas in the SEC, USC in the Big 10 and more. The Pac-12 will more than likely disappear. The ACC is a legal loophole away from losing their top members and more developments will continue in the next few years.

Another negative is the buy-in. What happens if schools say they do not want to be a part of this system (for example all of the Ivy League)?

Well, in the case of a whole conference they would just play each other with the option of teams in the Leagues to play them as a non-division game. Once the leagues are set, they cannot decide to join later at a high league. They would have to start where the D3 schools are. For individual schools, they can either form an independent league to get games or may have to drop football. In the case of Notre Dame, two of their biggest factors of not joining a conference are: being able to compete for a championship and their TV deal. In this model they would lose both of those things forcing them to join the system.

What happens if a team like North Dakota State comes out of nowhere to ascend to League 1? It would hurt TV revenue/big game schedules.

The chances of that occurring are very slim, if it does happen they will more than likely only remain in the league for one year before being demoted. But, if it did happen it would be the number 1 story in sports for that year. North Dakota State would be able to fund their programs for years and could use it as a way to put their team in the same echelon as a nearby Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa, etc. in funding.

Top teams will fear that playing good team after good team will lead to more injuries.

This may happen, but injuries can occur against any opponent and as these super conferences are being built, teams are playing more and more good teams every year in those conferences. This is also a way for the top NFL talent to prepare for potentially being drafted into the NFL.

Another negative is the idea that a model like this will lead to the slow retraction of student-athlete and the rise of a “semi-pro” or minor league for the NFL.

With NIL deals, and teams like Alabama, Ohio State, Clemson, Georgia, etc. building NFL comparable rosters going up against your Vanderbilt, Northwestern, and Dukes of the world as is, doesn’t it make sense to group those top teams together for entertainment and safety.

If League 1 teams are playing the best of the best every week it will make "big games" less enticing.

This source: https://www.sportsmediawatch.com/college-football-tv-ratings/ shows viewership from last year. Week 10 last year involved two extremely hyped games Tennessee-Georgia and Alabama-LSU both garnering over 7.5 million viewers for a regular season game (Tennessee-Georgia registered over 13 million!). Week 8 saw matchups that led to Syracuse-Clemson leading the way with 4.75 million viewers. Fans want big matchups as big matchups routinely score 5+ million viewers every week with some reaching 10+ million. The list of matchups that had over 7 million viewers:

Notre Dame vs. Ohio State (Week 1) 10.53 million

Florida State vs. LSU (Week 1) 7.55 million

Alabama vs. Texas (Week 2) 10.60 million

Texas A&M vs. Alabama (Week 6) 7.15 million

Alabama vs. Tennessee (Week 7) 11.56 million

Ohio State vs. Penn State (Week 9) 8.27 million

Tennessee vs. Georgia (Week 10) 13.06 million

Alabama vs. LSU (Week 10) 7.58 million

Alabama vs. Ole Miss (Week 11) 8.71 million

Michigan vs. Ohio State (Week 13) 17.14 million

These ended up being the top 10 regular season games in terms of viewership. With the way "League 1" is set up 18 of the 20 teams involved in the list are in League 1 with only Florida State and Ole Miss outside. The Conference Championship games involved 3 that pushed 7 million and bowl games involved 6 that pushed 7 million including all 3 playoff matchups.

If you take a closer look at the list above Ohio State shows up 3 times (Michigan, Notre Dame, Penn State) and Alabama shows up 5 times (Tennessee, Texas, Ole Miss, LSU, Texas A&M). Let's look at some of the TV ratings for those teams against "lower opponents" in their conference.

Ohio State vs. Maryland - Week 12 (6.60 million) #1 That Week

Ohio State vs. Indiana - Week 11 (3.34 million) #7 That Week

Ohio State vs. Northwestern - Week 10 (4.76 million) #3 That Week

Ohio State vs. Iowa - Week 8 (4.38 million) #3 That Week

Ohio State vs. Michigan State - Week 6 (4.44 million) #2 That Week

Ohio State vs. Rutgers - Week 5 (1.79 million) #10 That Week --> ON BTN!

Ohio State vs. Wisconsin - Week 4 (4.59 million) #2 That Week

Alabama vs. Auburn - Week 13 (6.27 million) #4 That Week

Alabama vs. Miss State - Week 8 (3.59 million) #5 That Week

Alabama vs. Arkansas - Week 5 (5.83 million) #1 That Week

Of the top 10, every single game ended up being in the top 10 viewed that week including 6 of the 10 falling in the top 3. If Ohio State playing against a 1-11 Northwestern team can get #3 and Ohio State playing against Rutgers on BTN can get #10, why wouldn't Ohio State vs. USC or Ohio State vs. Oregon get more viewers? Especially when those teams are finishing top 10 in viewership as well against conference opponents (10 times with some of those games occurring at 10:30 p.m.):

Oregon vs. Washington State #9 in Week 4

USC vs. Arizona State #9 in Week 5

USC vs. Washington State #10 in Week 6

USC vs. Utah #4 in Week 7

Oregon vs. UCLA #7 in Week 8

USC vs. Cal #8 in Week 10

Oregon vs. Washington #4 in Week 11

USC vs. UCLA #4 in Week 12

Oregon vs. Utah #8 in Week 12

Oregon vs. Oregon State #8 in Week 13

Teams with large fanbases will watch their team regardless. Neutral fans will have a really good game to tune into every week instead of the current system of college football where the "best game" of the week may be Ohio State vs. Maryland (Week 12 of last year - no disrespect to Maryland).

Would teams that are used to winning (Oklahoma, Alabama, Ohio State, etc.) have fans start to not show up or not tune in if they have bad starts to their season or multiple losing seasons in a row (as they would have a much harder schedule)? Could this negatively affecting TV ratings? Or would teams in League 2 or League 3 not show up to as many games due to them not being in the "top league?"

Certain teams in League 1 (Oklahoma State, Iowa, Michigan State, Washington, Texas A&M, Florida) have had up and down seasons in the past 15 years and fans have continued to show up and tune in with only a slight drop-off. The same could be said for teams in League 2 where dedicated fan bases have continued to show up be it a bad season or good season.

Some examples include:

Nebraska went 4-8 in 2022 and finished 11th in average attendance.

Auburn went 5-7 and finished 12th in average attendance.

Florida went 6-7 and finished 10th in average attendance.

Texas A&M went 5-7 and finished 8th in average attendance.

Oklahoma went 6-7 and finished 13th in average attendance.

Virginia Tech went 3-8 and finished 23rd in average attendance.

Teams like Vanderbilt, Duke, Maryland, Rutgers, Illinois, Boston College, etc. would not agree to a system like this as their performance, attendance, and value has brought them to League 3 with the likes of Ball State, San Jose State, James Madison, Georgia Southern, etc.

They are one good season away from getting to League 2. Just as relegation from League 1 keeps the top programs accountable, relegation from League 2 or League 3 keeps the next group of teams accountable. The system allows for performance to dictate financial gains. The better you play, the more money your school will make. While those schools are in League 3, schools like Appalachian State, Navy, Army, Fresno State, San Diego State, Air Force, Cincinnati, UCF, Boise State, and BYU reside in League 2 based on their 8 year performance, attendance, and value. Maryland and Vanderbilt have the same chance as Georgia and Alabama to be in League 1 in two years’ time. They just have to win. I don’t think any fan or program director can honestly say that Vanderbilt, Duke, or Maryland deserve to be in League 1 in present time. To get to League 2, all they need to do is win promotion.

Will recruiting lead to all the best student-athletes going to only League 1 teams lowering the quality of recruits teams in a League 2 or League 3 can get?

Using this source: https://247sports.com/Season/2022-Football/CompositeTeamRankings/ we can look at the top 20 classes in the last 10 years (and further if we wanted).

In 2022, teams in League 1 made up 14 of the top 20 classes (but all of the top 10)

In 2021, teams in League 1 made up 15 of the top 20 classes (but all of the top 10)

In 2020, teams in League 1 made up 16 of the top 20 classes (but all of the top 10)

In 2019, teams in League 1 made up 17 of the top 20 classes (but all of the top 10)

In 2018, teams in League 1 made up 15 of the top 20 classes (and 9 of the top 10 - Miami FL #8)

In 2017, teams in League 1 made up 15 of the top 20 classes (and 9 of the top 10 - Florida State #6)

In 2016, teams in League 1 made up 16 of the top 20 classes (and 8 of the top 10 - FSU #3, Ole Miss #5)

In 2015, teams in League 1 made up 14 of the top 20 classes (and 9 of the top 10 - Florida State #3)

In 2014, teams in League 1 made up 14 of the top 20 classes (and 9 of the top 10 - Florida State #4)

In 2013, teams in League 1 made up 15 of the top 20 classes (and 8 of the top 10 - UCLA #7, Ole Miss #8)

Of the last 10 years, only 6 or less teams outside of League 1 had a top 20 recruiting class with no more than 2 in a given year penetrating the top 10. Of note, Florida State (who had 4 of the 8 top 10 appearances for teams outside of League 1 finished 1 spot below the League 1 threshold being narrowly edged out by Michigan State.

For some overall percentages in the last 10 years: 151 of the 200 classes (75.5%) are League 1 teams. The 49 who cracked the top 20 are comprised of 13 teams: Florida State (8), Miami FL (7), UCLA (6), Ole Miss (5), South Carolina (5), Stanford (5), North Carolina (4), Nebraska (3), Maryland (2), Miss State (1), Arizona State (1), Kentucky (1), Missouri (1).

Looking at the next 11 teams who barely didn't make League 1 and comparing it to the above list 8 of the 13 teams are there, leaving only UCLA, North Carolina, Maryland, Arizona State and Missouri missing with all of them being League 2 members except Maryland.

As for the top 10, 92 of the 100 classes (92%) are League 1 teams. The 8 who cracked the top 20 are comprised of 4 teams: Florida State (4), Ole Miss (2), Miami FL (1), UCLA (1). Florida State was the first team out, Ole Miss was the third team out.

With these statistics, it's clear that League 1 teams are already controlling the recruiting trail. Will the numbers increase with this format? More than likely. But, with relegation and promotion a team like Florida State is one good season away from joining League 1. Many recruits who choose to go to the ACC with Florida State now over the SEC will probably continue to do so even in a League 1/League 2 system.

As important as exposure is, the NFL can't watch you perform if you are on the bench. Statistics from the previous draft were gathered through this source: https://www.ncaa.com/news/football/article/2023-04-30/colleges-and-conferences-most-players-drafted-2023-nfl-draft

This past draft 209 of 259 players drafted came from Power 5 schools plus Notre Dame (80.7%). Source:

That is to say 1 in 5 drafted were outside the Power 5 Conferences. If the NFL is capable of tracking down ESPN+ footage and regional broadcast footage to get 1 in 5 of their draft picks, nothing will stop them from drafting a large amount of League 2, 3, 4, etc. players. With the possibility of promotion League 2 teams can quickly become League 1 members.